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And the Oscar goes to… the secondaries market in 2020

Our upcoming predictions video suggests the industry can expect more drama, more excitement and even more surprises this year.

Joaquin Phoenix is tipped to take the gong for best actor for his performance in Joker at next month’s Academy Awards, while war epic 1917 is a strong contender for best picture, but there’s one cinematic production that could trump them all.

In the weeks leading up to Christmas Secondaries Investor spent time filming some of the secondaries market’s most influential participants, capturing their bold industry predictions for 2020 on camera. From Denver to Singapore, New York to London (and even one filmed in Hawaii), we gathered views on how the market will change this year.

The overwhelming takeaway? The secondaries market is in for some dramatic developments. Nik Morandi, who leads European secondaries at Canada Pension Plan Investment Board, predicts we’ll see a large established European GP implement  a programmatic liquidity mechanism for its LPs. This will go “two or three steps beyond” what a typical tender process or qualified matching service can deliver, Morandi says.

For Anthony Shontz, managing director at Partners Group, 2020 is going to be like a Las Vegas buffet. “The selection of entrées will be overwhelming, buyers will be able to make selections tailored to their appetites, and investors will be able to eat until they’re full – and there will still be a lot of food left over,” he says.

Competition will intensify to new highs, says Sunaina Sinha, managing partner at Cebile Capital, with at least 10 new entrants to the buyside this year.

In Europe, the market is set for some potentially huge ramifications due to effectively connected income regulations, warns Ted Cardos, a partner at Kirkland & Ellis. European managers will struggle to interpret rules around it and, coupled with GPs’ lack of experience with the US Internal Revenue Service, the result will be many GPs refusing to consent to transfers.

Drama, tension, excitement, big developments – the secondaries market is gearing up for some truly Oscar-worthy developments in 2020. But of course, we wouldn’t expect anything less.

We can’t wait to share the video with you next week.

What areas of the secondaries market would you like to read about this year? We want to hear from you about what we should be focusing on in 2020. Interviews with buyout GPs? More data-based stories? Podcasts, videos and how-to guides? Or just good ol’ scoops? Get in touch: adam.l@peimedia.com or @adamtuyenle