Secondaries volume in 2020 is expected to reach $46 billion, according to a poll conducted by Setter Capital.
That number represents an average of estimates from secondaries investors, however some expect volume to be as low as $24 billion or as high as $95 billion in 2020.
Both the average estimate and highest estimate of secondaries volume in 2020 are well above what investors expect this year and in 2015. The average estimate for this year is $35 billion and the average for 2015 is $36 billion. Likewise, the highest expectations are $46 billion in 2014 and $50 billion in 2015.
Despite these lofty expectations, some investors think secondaries volume could hover in the mid-twenties for the next five or six years. In both 2015 and 2020, volume could be as low as $24 billion – even less than the lowest estimate for 2014, which is $29 billion.
Some investors foresee a drop in secondaries volume, but according to Setter the majority expect a “strong and growing secondary market for years to come”.